Will Netflix's takeover of Warner Brothers succeed Before July 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
34%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6K
3 contracts
Closes
Jul 1, 2027
311 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Paramount's takeover of Warner Brothers succeed Before July 2027
Will Paramount's takeover of Warner Brothers succeed Before July 2027?: Paramount
KXTAKEOVERACQWB-27JUN30-PSKY
Cluster 2
Will Netflix's takeover of Warner Brothers succeed Before July 2027
Will Netflix's takeover of Warner Brothers succeed Before July 2027?: Netflix
KXTAKEOVERACQWB-27JUN30-NFLX
Cluster 3
Will None's takeover of Warner Brothers succeed Before July 2027
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Netflix will successfully acquire Warner Brothers before July 2027. The 47% likelihood suggests roughly even odds, positioning Netflix's potential deal between more optimistic scenarios (Paramount at 78%) and the possibility no acquisition closes by the deadline (17%). The current level likely reflects Netflix's stated interest in content consolidation, but also faces headwinds including regulatory review timelines, financing complexity for a deal of this scale, and competing bidders. The primary catalyst will be official announcement of a definitive agreement followed by antitrust clearance from the Federal Trade Commission, which typically requires 6-12 months to complete for major media consolidations. Until then, market expectations will shift based on executive statements, regulatory guidance, and competing bid announcements.
- ›Netflix has not publicly announced a formal bid for Warner Brothers as of May 2026, limiting concrete deal probability
- ›Paramount's contract trades at 78¢ versus Netflix at 47¢, suggesting markets view Paramount as a stronger acquisition candidate currently
- ›Major media acquisitions require FTC antitrust review, historically taking 6-12 months; a July 2027 deadline allows roughly 14 months for completion
- ›Warner Brothers' standalone valuation and shareholder appetite for a specific buyer will significantly influence deal feasibility and timing
- ›Regulatory environment toward media consolidation has tightened since 2020, making large-scale deals less certain to clear approval
What moved the line
- Aug 22Paramount↑5pp76→81¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22None before July 2027↓3pp20→17¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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