Will Tim Walz resign by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
11%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$274
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Tim Walz resign by
Will Tim Walz resign by...?: Before 2027
0x46a624…63bb
Analysis
This prediction estimates a 12% chance that Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will resign before a specified date. Walz assumed the vice presidency under President Biden in 2025, creating a potential conflict with his gubernatorial duties. The low probability reflects the rarity of sitting governors resigning from office and the absence of public signals suggesting imminent departure. The main factors determining this outcome would be either unprecedented political circumstances forcing his hand or unforeseen personal or health-related circumstances. The resolution depends on whether Walz formally vacates the governorship before the deadline, which would likely be announced publicly by state officials.
- ›Walz has maintained dual roles as VP and governor since 2025 without publicly indicating plans to resign
- ›No sitting US vice president has resigned from a governorship in modern political history
- ›Minnesota's succession rules and lieutenant governor structure would activate automatically upon resignation
- ›Any resignation would require formal notice to state authorities and would be immediately verifiable through official state records
- ›Unexpected personal circumstances, legal issues, or major political shifts could alter the baseline expectation
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (11% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.