TN-09 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 40% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 38%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Justin Pearson
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
38¢
Steve Cohen
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$78
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 6, 2026
89 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
TN-09 Democratic Primary Winner
Analysis
This probability reflects market estimates of the likelihood that a specific candidate wins the Tennessee 9th District Democratic primary. The 50% price for the leading candidate indicates meaningful uncertainty about the outcome, with the runner-up at 46% suggesting a competitive race. Primary winners depend on candidate fundraising, voter turnout patterns in the district, endorsement dynamics, and polling accuracy in the weeks leading to the election. The primary election date itself represents the key catalyst that will resolve this market, after which actual vote totals replace speculation. Market participants are pricing in the possibility of a narrow outcome or potential surprises given the close polling between frontrunners.
- ›Relative fundraising totals and cash-on-hand for leading candidates in the district as of FEC reporting deadlines
- ›Recent district-specific polling or internal campaign surveys showing vote share trends within 4-6 weeks of primary day
- ›Endorsement patterns from local party officials, union leaders, or other organizational validators that may influence late-decider voters
- ›Voter turnout projections by demographic group, since Democratic primary outcomes can shift significantly with varying turnout assumptions
- ›Historical accuracy of previous predictions for this district's Democratic primary electorate composition
What moved the line
- May 7Justin Pearson↓9pp48→39¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Justin Pearson↑6pp46→52¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Justin Pearson↓5pp39→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Steve Cohen↑5pp40→45¢ · Polymarket
- May 3DeVante Hill↓5pp15→10¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.