ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (May 8, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.

Winner-take-all · 3 outcomes3 contractsKalshiclosed 20 h agoCloses May 7, 2026 · 0d

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be between 4.20 and 4.22 on Apr 21, 2026

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Leader sits at 21% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 11%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

21%

4.28% to 4.3%

0¢runner-up 11¢leader 21¢

Outcomes

winner-take-all

Runner-up

11¢

4.24% or below

Spread

10pp

contested

24h volume

thin orderbook

Closes

May 7, 2026

0 days

Venue

Kalshi

3 bound

Top contract →Read as answer

30-day trend

Top 1 candidate by current price · 1d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be

3 contracts$3

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be between 4.25 and 4.27 on May 7, 2026?: 4.25% to 4.27%

KXTNOTED-26MAY07-B4.26

6¢—$1K→

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be below 4.25 on May 7, 2026?: 4.24% or below

KXTNOTED-26MAY07-T4.25

11¢—$1K→

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be between 4.28 and 4.30 on May 7, 2026?: 4.28% to 4.3%

KXTNOTED-26MAY07-B4.29

21¢—$1K→

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 20 h ago.

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