Winner-take-all · 3 outcomes3 contractsKalshirefreshed 23 h agoCloses May 8, 2026 · 0d

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be between 4.47 and 4.49 on Apr 24, 2026

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Leader sits at 17% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

17%

4.4% to 4.42%

0¢runner-up 16¢leader 17¢

Outcomes

winner-take-all

Runner-up

16¢

4.37% to 4.39%

Spread

1pp

contested

24h volume

$16

thin orderbook

Closes

May 8, 2026

0 days

Venue

Kalshi

3 bound

Top contract →Read as answer

30-day trend

4.4% to 4.42%17¢4.37% to 4.39%19¢4.46% to 4.48%3¢

Top 3 candidates by current price · 6d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be between 4

3 contracts$16

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be between 4.46 and 4.48 on May 8, 2026?: 4.46% to 4.48%

KXTNOTEW-26MAY08-B4.47

3¢−2pp$16K→

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be between 4.40 and 4.42 on May 8, 2026?: 4.4% to 4.42%

KXTNOTEW-26MAY08-B4.41

17¢±0$0K→

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be between 4.37 and 4.39 on May 8, 2026?: 4.37% to 4.39%

KXTNOTEW-26MAY08-B4.38

16¢+9pp$0K→

What moved the line

May 74.4% to 4.42%↑11pp6→17¢ · Kalshi
May 74.37% to 4.39%↑9pp10→19¢ · Kalshi
May 64.37% to 4.39%↑7pp3→10¢ · Kalshi
May 64.4% to 4.42%↑4pp2→6¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 23 h ago.

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