Top 14: ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan
Leader sits at 65% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan: ASM Clermont Auvergne
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
14¢
ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Per
Spread
51pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$384
thin orderbook
Closes
May 16, 2026
7 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Top 14: ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan
Analysis
This represents the current market assessment that the ASM Clermont Auvergne versus Perpignan Top 14 match will end in a draw, with a 28% implied probability. The draw price reflects the relatively low historical frequency of ties in rugby union, where decisive outcomes are more common than goalless stalemates in other sports. Current pricing suggests traders view an ASM win as the marginal favorite, with Perpignan at 19%. The main drivers of this probability are each team's recent form, head-to-head history, injury status, and home-field advantage if applicable. The match itself will provide the definitive resolution, determining whether the draw outcome materializes or one team secures victory.
- ›Historical draw frequency in Top 14 matches typically ranges 5-12%, making 28% an elevated relative to baseline expectations
- ›ASM Clermont's recent performance record and current league position relative to Perpignan's standings
- ›Team composition, particularly availability of key players and recent injury reports affecting both sides
- ›Head-to-head matchup history between the two clubs in recent seasons
- ›Match venue and whether home-field advantage patterns have historically favored either team in draws
What moved the line
- May 8ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan: ASM Clermont Auvergne↓12pp78→66¢ · Polymarket
- May 7ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan: Draw↓4pp27→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 7ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan: ASM Clermont Auvergne↑3pp75→78¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.