Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...
Leader sits at 4% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
June 30
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
May 31
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$42
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
57 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by
Analysis
This market reflects a 4% probability that former President Trump will have direct communication with Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Iran's Supreme Leader, by a specified deadline. Such high-level contact would represent a significant diplomatic shift given current US-Iran tensions and the absence of recent direct presidential-level engagement. The low probability primarily reflects the substantial diplomatic barriers between the US and Iran, including sanctions, regional tensions, and the lack of established diplomatic channels at this level. A major shift toward negotiation—whether driven by nuclear talks, Middle East peace initiatives, or geopolitical realignment—would be the primary catalyst to substantially increase this probability. The resolution depends on either public disclosure of direct communication or confirmation through credible third-party reporting, with the specified deadline representing a fixed reference point for this uncertain event.
- ›Current US-Iran diplomatic relations remain adversarial with no active high-level bilateral talks or established communication channels as of mid-2026
- ›Trump's historical negotiation approach varies significantly depending on geopolitical circumstances and his advisors' influence
- ›Any direct contact would likely require either a major crisis (nuclear escalation, regional conflict) or formal diplomatic initiative as a prerequisite
- ›Public verification of such communication would be challenging; many diplomatic contacts remain confidential or deniable
- ›The deadline specificity matters: a distant date increases probability odds compared to an imminent cutoff
What moved the line
- May 2June 30↓4pp8→4¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28June 30↑3pp5→8¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.