Will Donald Trump visit New York before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 65% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 64%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
North Carolina
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
64¢
California
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$4
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
192 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump visit
Will Donald Trump visit Kansas before Jan 1, 2027?: Kansas
KXTRUMPSTATES-27JAN01-KS
Will Donald Trump visit North Carolina before Jan 1, 2027?: North Carolina
KXTRUMPSTATES-27JAN01-NC
Will Donald Trump visit Hawaii before Jan 1, 2027?: Hawaii
KXTRUMPSTATES-27JAN01-HI
Will Donald Trump visit Colorado before Jan 1, 2027?: Colorado
KXTRUMPSTATES-27JAN01-CO
Will Donald Trump visit California before Jan 1, 2027?: California
KXTRUMPSTATES-27JAN01-CA
Will Donald Trump visit Alaska before Jan 1, 2027?: Alaska
KXTRUMPSTATES-27JAN01-AK
Will Donald Trump visit South Carolina before Jan 1, 2027?: South Carolina
KXTRUMPSTATES-27JAN01-SC
Will Donald Trump visit Montana before Jan 1, 2027?: Montana
KXTRUMPSTATES-27JAN01-MT
Will Donald Trump visit Minnesota before Jan 1, 2027?: Minnesota
KXTRUMPSTATES-27JAN01-MN
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Donald Trump has a high likelihood of visiting New York before January 1, 2027. The 91% price suggests traders view a New York visit as substantially probable within the remaining eight months. The main drivers of this level are Trump's known residences and business interests in New York—including Trump Tower in Manhattan—and his historical pattern of frequent U.S. travel during his presidency. The probability could decline if Trump's schedule becomes heavily focused on travel elsewhere or if unexpected circumstances limit his movement. The key near-term catalyst is tracking his actual travel schedule over the next several months; any confirmed New York visit would resolve this contract. Notably, related Kalshi contracts show high probabilities for Trump visiting China before year-end, suggesting market confidence in his international travel plans as well.
- ›Trump maintains significant personal and business interests in New York, including Trump Tower headquarters and real estate holdings that typically require periodic attention
- ›Historical travel patterns show Trump frequently visited New York during his presidency for both business and personal reasons
- ›No scheduled restrictions or announced plans currently preventing Trump from traveling domestically within the remaining 243 days until expiration
- ›The 91% price is substantially higher than the 68% runner-up contract, indicating market consensus around this outcome rather than close competition
- ›Related contracts pricing China visits at 89-93% suggest traders expect active travel plans generally, which could correlate with New York accessibility
What moved the line
- Jun 18North Carolina↓5pp72→67¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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