Will Donald Trump visit New York before Jan 1, 2027

30-day trend

Analysis

The market currently estimates a 72% probability that Donald Trump will visit New York before January 1, 2027. This assessment reflects traders' expectations about Trump's travel patterns and campaign activities during the final five months of 2026. The probability appears driven by Trump's historical frequency of New York visits, his base of operations there, and anticipated campaign scheduling for the 2028 election cycle. Key uncertainties include unexpected schedule changes, health considerations, or shifts in campaign priorities. The actual resolution will be determined by verifiable news reports of Trump entering New York state before the year closes. Comparatively, the market prices other state visits as follows: South Carolina at 72%, North Carolina at 62%, Iowa at 64%, California at 49%, and Alaska at just 9%, suggesting traders view New York as a similarly probable destination to South Carolina for Trump's remaining visits in 2026.

• ›Trump's residence and business headquarters in New York, combined with his historical frequency of New York visits, provides a structural baseline for the probability estimate
• ›The final five-month window (August-December 2026) encompasses the post-midterm election period when campaign activity typically concentrates in swing states and candidate home territories
• ›South Carolina and North Carolina both trade at comparable or lower probabilities (72% and 62% respectively) despite being traditional campaign hotspots, suggesting New York's baseline reflects personal/business travel rather than purely campaign considerations
• ›The observation that Alaska trades at only 9% while Iowa trades at 64% indicates the market distinguishes sharply between geographically distant locations and competitive electoral territories
• ›Verifiable reporting through news outlets, campaign announcements, or Trump's own public statements would constitute the only acceptable evidence for resolution

What moved the line

• Aug 5South Carolina↑5pp69→74¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 5Iowa↑4pp64→68¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 3North Carolina↑4pp72→76¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 4North Carolina↓4pp76→72¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 4Iowa↑3pp61→64¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds