Who will Trump endorse
Leader sits at 52% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 40%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Ken Paxton - TX-Sen
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
40¢
Susan Collins - ME-Sen
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$205
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 4, 2026
179 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will Trump endorse
Analysis
This represents the market's assessment that Trump will make a specific endorsement—likely in an upcoming political context. The 64% probability suggests traders view the endorsement as more probable than not, based on Trump's historical pattern of public statements and his current political activity. The probability is driven by the frequency and timing of Trump's recent public communications, visible through his Truth Social posts and media appearances. The main uncertainty centers on whether he will make the particular endorsement being tested before a specific deadline, and what political events or developments might trigger or delay it. The single biggest catalyst would be any major political announcement, campaign event, or shift in political circumstances that would prompt Trump to issue a public endorsement.
- ›Trump's Truth Social posting frequency in the past 30 days compared to historical baseline
- ›Whether a specific triggering political event (primary election, candidate announcement, or party development) has occurred or is imminent
- ›The resolution criteria's specificity: whether the endorsement must name a particular candidate or fall within a defined time window
- ›Volume and implied confidence levels across related Trump-action contracts suggesting coordinated trader expectations
- ›Any public statements from Trump or his associates indicating his likelihood to make endorsements in the near term
What moved the line
- May 6Ken Paxton - TX-Sen↓20pp57→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Susan Collins - ME-Sen↑9pp24→33¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Ken Paxton - TX-Sen↑7pp50→57¢ · Polymarket
- May 8John Cornyn - TX-Sen↓6pp33→27¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Susan Collins - ME-Sen↓5pp37→32¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.