Will Trump visit Pakistan by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
4%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$26
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
12 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump visit Pakistan by
Will Trump visit Pakistan by...?: June 30
0xc1f43d…1077
Analysis
This contract asks whether former President Trump will visit Pakistan within the next week, currently priced at 5% probability. The low likelihood reflects the short timeframe and lack of announced diplomatic plans, as Trump would need to arrange travel, security, and official engagements within days. The probability could increase if there were sudden diplomatic developments, urgent negotiations, or public announcements of such a visit. The May 31 deadline creates a concrete resolution point, with the contract expiring in one week. Any official announcement from Trump's team or Pakistani government would be the primary catalyst to shift probabilities significantly, as would scheduling of major bilateral meetings or summits.
- ›No public announcement of a Pakistan visit has been made as of late May 2026
- ›The seven-day window requires immediate logistical coordination for presidential-level international travel and security protocols
- ›Trump's recent public schedule and announced commitments for the next week would need to accommodate such a visit
- ›Diplomatic relations between the US and Pakistan and any urgent bilateral issues requiring high-level engagement would motivate such a trip
- ›Historical frequency of unscheduled presidential visits to Pakistan suggests such trips are rare and typically planned well in advance
What moved the line
- Jun 11June 30↑13pp3→16¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 12June 30↓5pp16→11¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16June 30↓4pp8→4¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 13June 30↓3pp11→8¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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