Trump out as President before 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
10%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$26K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Trump out as President before 2027
Trump out as President before 2027?
0x48b0b0…4722
Analysis
This probability reflects the current market expectation that President Trump will leave office before January 2027, representing roughly a 1-in-7 chance. At 14%, the market is pricing in scenarios where Trump either resigns, is removed through impeachment and conviction, or becomes unable to serve before the end of his current term. The probability is primarily driven by two factors: Trump's current age and health status, and the political environment regarding potential legal or constitutional challenges to his presidency. The single largest uncertainty ahead involves any significant health events or major developments in ongoing legal matters that could materially change the baseline risk assessment. Election outcomes and political dynamics over the next 18 months will likely be the primary drivers of how this probability evolves from its current level.
- ›Trump is currently 79 years old; actuarial data and health status changes would be concrete inputs affecting removal-by-death probabilities
- ›Senate composition and political dynamics determine the theoretical viability of impeachment and conviction, which would require supermajority support among 100 senators
- ›Any formal impeachment proceedings or criminal conviction outcomes would represent clear catalysts that markets would incorporate immediately
- ›The current 14% probability implicitly prices in legal, health, and political removal scenarios combined—parsing these separately would require deeper market segmentation
- ›Historical precedent shows U.S. presidents rarely leave office before completing their term absent death or resignation under acute pressure
Recently closed in trump
- Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31last 39% · 1d
- How long will Donald Trump speak for at White House Correspondents' Dinnerlast 92% · 2d
- Which topic will Donald Trump mention most during Roundtable Chippewa Falls, Wisconsinlast 45% · 2d
- Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General by June 30last 93% · 3d
- Who will Trump speak to in Maylast 20% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (10% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In trump
Related reading
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Powell's Exit Probability Skyrockets as Trump Influence Looms
The market for Jerome Powell departing as Fed Chair by May 22 surged an unprecedented +48 points, reaching 95¢. This signals a dramatic and sudden reassessment of Federal Reserve leadership stability, raising questions about the future of monetary policy under a potential Trump second term.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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