Trump out as President before 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
11%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$33K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
195 days
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Trump out as President before 2027
Trump out as President before 2027?
0x48b0b0…4722
Analysis
This probability reflects the current market expectation that President Trump will leave office before January 2027, representing roughly a 1-in-7 chance. At 14%, the market is pricing in scenarios where Trump either resigns, is removed through impeachment and conviction, or becomes unable to serve before the end of his current term. The probability is primarily driven by two factors: Trump's current age and health status, and the political environment regarding potential legal or constitutional challenges to his presidency. The single largest uncertainty ahead involves any significant health events or major developments in ongoing legal matters that could materially change the baseline risk assessment. Election outcomes and political dynamics over the next 18 months will likely be the primary drivers of how this probability evolves from its current level.
- ›Trump is currently 79 years old; actuarial data and health status changes would be concrete inputs affecting removal-by-death probabilities
- ›Senate composition and political dynamics determine the theoretical viability of impeachment and conviction, which would require supermajority support among 100 senators
- ›Any formal impeachment proceedings or criminal conviction outcomes would represent clear catalysts that markets would incorporate immediately
- ›The current 14% probability implicitly prices in legal, health, and political removal scenarios combined—parsing these separately would require deeper market segmentation
- ›Historical precedent shows U.S. presidents rarely leave office before completing their term absent death or resignation under acute pressure
Recently closed in trump
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act becomes law without Donald Trump’s signature before Jul 14, 2026last 97% · 4d
- Will Donald Trump make between 80 and 99 Truth Social posts the week of Apr 19, 2026last 48% · 13d
- Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administrationlast 3% · 17d
- Will Trump say "Fort Trump" before Jul 1, 2026last 3% · 17d
- Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in May 2026 be at least 25last 4% · 17d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (11% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In trump
Related reading
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Trump World Cup Attendance Near Certain, Administration Turnover Markets Heat Up
Trump's attendance at the 2026 World Cup Final is priced at 94¢ (vol 549,594), the most liquid Trump market. Meanwhile, markets on administration departures (Kash Patel out as FBI Director before 2027 at 49¢) and potential resignations are drawing volume. The SAVE Act remains a long shot at 9¢.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.