0
Leader sits at 23% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 22%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
10
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
22¢
11
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$1
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 16, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the number of Trump-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 be exactly 1
Will the number of Trump-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 be exactly 11 in primaries from Apr 10, 2026 to Sept 16, 2026?: 11
KXTRUMPENDORSELOSS-26SEP16-E11
Will the number of Trump-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 be exactly 10 in primaries from Apr 10, 2026 to Sept 16, 2026?: 10
KXTRUMPENDORSELOSS-26SEP16-T10
Analysis
This market tracks whether exactly 10 Trump-endorsed candidates will lose their primary elections between April and mid-September 2026. At 23%, the market currently views this specific outcome as unlikely, suggesting observers expect either fewer losses or a different number altogether. Trump's influence over Republican primary outcomes has varied substantially across cycles, depending on candidate quality, local dynamics, and voter sentiment in specific races. The current 23% probability reflects uncertainty about how many endorsements will prove consequential in contested primaries during this window. Key variables include the overall competitiveness of Republican primaries this cycle, the quality of Trump-backed candidates, and whether high-profile primary challenges materialize. The resolution date of September 16, 2026 will definitively settle this based on actual primary results as they occur through the summer.
- ›The number of Trump-endorsed candidates running in contested Republican primaries between April and September 2026 determines the pool size for potential losses
- ›Historical variance in Trump endorsement effectiveness across different election cycles and race types (House, Senate, gubernatorial) affects baseline expectations
- ›Primary competitiveness levels in key states and districts will determine whether Trump-backed candidates face meaningful opposition or run unopposed
- ›The specific definition and verification of 'Trump-endorsed' status during this period may create ambiguity in final counting
- ›Early primary results from April-May contests will provide real data to adjust expectations for later primaries through September
What moved the line
- Sep 1211↓25pp47→22¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will Barack Obama endorse Graham Platner in Maine Senate before Nov 3, 2026last 83% · 1d
- Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 66% · 6d
- Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 64% · 6d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.25last 84% · 8d
- Will PL win the 2026 Brazilian Chamber of Deputies electionslast 48% · 8d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (23% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.