0
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$455
10 contracts
Closes
Sep 16, 2026
130 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Will the number of Trump-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 be exactly” vs “Will 2 Trump-endorsed candidates lose their primaries”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the number of Trump-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 be exactly
Will the number of Trump-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 be exactly 7 in primaries from Apr 10, 2026 to Sept 16, 2026?: 7
KXTRUMPENDORSELOSS-26SEP16-T7
Will the number of Trump-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 be exactly 10 in primaries from Apr 10, 2026 to Sept 16, 2026?: 10
KXTRUMPENDORSELOSS-26SEP16-T10
Will the number of Trump-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 be exactly 9 in primaries from Apr 10, 2026 to Sept 16, 2026?: 9
KXTRUMPENDORSELOSS-26SEP16-T9
Will the number of Trump-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 be exactly 8 in primaries from Apr 10, 2026 to Sept 16, 2026?: 8
KXTRUMPENDORSELOSS-26SEP16-T8
Will the number of Trump-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 be exactly 6 in primaries from Apr 10, 2026 to Sept 16, 2026?: 6
KXTRUMPENDORSELOSS-26SEP16-T6
Cluster 2
Will 2 Trump-endorsed candidates lose their primaries
Will 2 Trump-endorsed candidates lose their primaries?: 2
KXTRUMPENDORSELOSS-26SEP16-T2
Cluster 3
Will 5 Trump-endorsed candidates lose their primaries
Will 5 Trump-endorsed candidates lose their primaries?: 5
KXTRUMPENDORSELOSS-26SEP16-T5
Cluster 4
Will 3 Trump-endorsed candidates lose their primaries
Will 3 Trump-endorsed candidates lose their primaries?: 3
KXTRUMPENDORSELOSS-26SEP16-T3
Cluster 5
Will 1 Trump-endorsed candidates lose their primaries
Will 1 Trump-endorsed candidates lose their primaries?: 1
KXTRUMPENDORSELOSS-26SEP16-T1
Cluster 6
Will 4 Trump-endorsed candidates lose their primaries
Will 4 Trump-endorsed candidates lose their primaries?: 4
KXTRUMPENDORSELOSS-26SEP16-T4
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that at least two Trump-endorsed candidates will lose their primary elections. As of May 2026, markets assign this outcome a 7% probability, reflecting expectations that most Trump-backed candidates will successfully win their primaries. The current level suggests high confidence in Trump-endorsed candidates' primary success, though factors like candidate quality, local political dynamics, and voter enthusiasm variations could shift this estimate. Primary elections occurring throughout 2026 will determine the final outcome. The main catalyst resolving uncertainty is the completion of all primary contests, where results will show exactly how many endorsed candidates either advance or are eliminated by voters. Factors that could increase this probability include stronger-than-expected opposition candidates, regional dissatisfaction with specific endorsements, or lower turnout among Trump supporters in particular races. Conversely, unified party support would decrease the probability further.
- ›Timing and concentration of primaries across 2026 — earlier contests may indicate patterns affecting later races
- ›Quality and viability of primary challengers to Trump-endorsed candidates — competitive races increase elimination risk
- ›Trump supporter turnout levels relative to opposition candidates — higher turnout typically favors endorsed candidates
- ›Regional variation in Trump endorsement reception — some districts or states may show weaker support for specific endorsees
- ›Candidate incumbency status — incumbents face different primary dynamics than open-seat candidates
What moved the line
- May 83↑7pp9→16¢ · Kalshi
- May 82↑3pp9→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.