Will Trump sign an executive order on...

30-day trend

Analysis

This market estimates a 50% probability that Trump will sign an executive order by May 27, 2026, based on aggregated trading across 8 contracts on Polymarket. The leading contract suggests markets see this as a genuine toss-up rather than a likely or unlikely event. The current probability reflects uncertainty about timing: traders have distributed probabilities across multiple dates (May 24 through May 31), with May 28-29 also showing 43% prices, indicating no consensus on when such an order might occur. The market's assessment appears to hinge on whether Trump announces or executes such an order within the narrow May 24-31 window. Key uncertainty factors include Trump's current policy priorities, the formal definition of 'signing' (announcement vs. ceremonial signing), and whether any specific executive order is already in preparation. Resolution depends entirely on whether a signed order matching the market's definition appears by May 27 at 11:59 PM.

• ›The 50% probability for May 27 reflects maximum uncertainty; traders show comparable confidence in May 28-29 outcomes (both at 43¢), suggesting the timing window itself is contested rather than the likelihood of an order occurring
• ›Trading volume concentrates on May 31 ($61 24h volume) and May 24 ($52 24h volume), indicating recent activity focused on near-term and recently-passed dates rather than the May 27 leader
• ›Eight bound contracts across different dates prevent any single outcome from commanding dominant probability, suggesting scattered trader conviction and information asymmetry about executive order timing
• ›The definition scope is critical but unclear: what counts as 'signing' and what policy area qualifies materially affects how traders price each date
• ›No evident catalyst or scheduled Trump event on May 27 is referenced in available contract data, leaving resolution dependent on unexpected announcements

What moved the line

• May 26May 24↑32pp5→37¢ · Polymarket
• May 25May 21↑27pp1→28¢ · Polymarket
• May 26May 21↓24pp28→4¢ · Polymarket
• May 25May 30↓18pp48→30¢ · Polymarket
• May 25May 31↓18pp47→29¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds