UEFA Europa Conference League

30-day trend

Analysis

The 95% probability indicates that traders believe Crystal Palace has a very high likelihood of reaching the UEFA Europa Conference League final. This reflects Palace's current tournament position and remaining fixture difficulty relative to other contenders. The probability is driven primarily by Palace's competitive strength in their semifinal matchup and the relative weakness of remaining opponents. Volume concentration in the reaching-final contract ($91 in 24h volume) suggests active trading around Palace's semifinal progression. The next major catalyst will be the completion of Palace's semifinal tie, which would either confirm their advancement or dramatically shift probabilities toward Strasbourg, Rayo Vallecano, or other alternatives currently priced lower.

• ›Crystal Palace's semifinal opponent strength and current form relative to other qualified teams
• ›The 33-point gap between the reach-final contract (95¢) and the outright winner contract (62¢) indicates substantial uncertainty about Palace winning the tournament once there
• ›Strasbourg and Rayo Vallecano combined trade at only 101¢ for reaching the final, suggesting they are heavily discounted relative to Palace
• ›Trading volume of $91 in 24 hours concentrated on the reach-final outcome indicates this is the primary uncertainty being priced
• ›Palace's semifinal result represents the immediate binary event that would most significantly alter the probability landscape

What moved the line

• May 8Most Goal Contributions: Álvaro García↓23pp48→25¢ · Polymarket
• May 7Winner: Rayo Vallecano↑13pp19→32¢ · Polymarket
• May 8Winner: Crystal Palace↑9pp55→64¢ · Polymarket
• May 8Top Scorer: Ismaïla Sarr↑9pp51→60¢ · Polymarket
• May 7Most Assists: Kees Smit↓9pp49→40¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds