Will either competitor win the Norma Dumont Viana vs. Joselyne Edwards UFC fight by KO/TKO/DQ?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
28%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
12 contracts
Closes
May 30, 2026
22 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will either competitor win” vs “will the nate diaz vs. mike perry ufc fight end in a draw? : draw”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will either competitor win
Will either competitor win the Baisangur Susurkaev vs. Djorden Santos UFC fight by Decision? : Decision
KXUFCMOF-26MAY09SUSSAN-DEC
Will either competitor win the Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland UFC fight by KO/TKO/DQ? : KO/TKO/DQ
KXUFCMOF-26MAY09CHISTR-KOTKODQ
Will either competitor win the Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano UFC fight by KO/TKO/DQ? : KO/TKO/DQ
KXUFCMOF-26MAY16ROUCAR-KOTKODQ
Will either competitor win the Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland UFC fight by Decision? : Decision
KXUFCMOF-26MAY09CHISTR-DEC
Will either competitor win the Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry UFC fight by Submission? : Submission
KXUFCMOF-26MAY16DIAPER-SUB
Will either competitor win the Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano UFC fight by Decision? : Decision
KXUFCMOF-26MAY16ROUCAR-DEC
Will either competitor win the Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano UFC fight by Submission? : Submission
KXUFCMOF-26MAY16ROUCAR-SUB
Will either competitor win the Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry UFC fight by KO/TKO/DQ? : KO/TKO/DQ
KXUFCMOF-26MAY16DIAPER-KOTKODQ
Will either competitor win the Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley UFC fight by Decision? : Decision
KXUFCMOF-26MAY09BRABUC-DEC
Will either competitor win the Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins UFC fight by KO/TKO/DQ? : KO/TKO/DQ
KXUFCMOF-26MAY16NGALIN-KOTKODQ
Will either competitor win the Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland UFC fight by Submission? : Submission
KXUFCMOF-26MAY09CHISTR-SUB
Cluster 2
will the nate diaz vs. mike perry ufc fight end in a draw? : draw
Will the Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry UFC fight end in a draw? : Draw
KXUFCMOF-26MAY16DIAPER-DRAW
What moved the line
- May 6KO/TKO/DQ↓21pp24→3¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.