Will Alexander Hernandez win the Rafa Garcia vs. Alexander Hernandez UFC fight in Round 2
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$16K
16 contracts
Closes
May 30, 2026
22 days
Bracket families
3 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Will either competitor win” vs “Will Sean Strickland win the Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland UFC fight in Round”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will either competitor win
Will either competitor win the Joel Alvarez vs. Yaroslav Amosov fight by decision or the fight result in a draw/no contest: Decision / Draw / No Contest
KXUFCVICROUND-26MAY09ALVAMO-OTHER
Will either competitor win the Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley fight by decision or the fight result in a draw/no contest: Decision / Draw / No Contest
KXUFCVICROUND-26MAY09BRABUC-OTHER
Will either competitor win the Baisangur Susurkaev vs. Djorden Santos fight by decision or the fight result in a draw/no contest: Decision / Draw / No Contest
KXUFCVICROUND-26MAY09SUSSAN-OTHER
Will either competitor win the Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio fight by decision or the fight result in a draw/no contest: Decision / Draw / No Contest
KXUFCVICROUND-26MAY09KOPTUL-OTHER
Will either competitor win the Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira fight by decision or the fight result in a draw/no contest: Decision / Draw / No Contest
KXUFCVICROUND-26MAY09VANTAI-OTHER
Will either competitor win the Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki fight by decision or the fight result in a draw/no contest: Decision / Draw / No Contest
KXUFCVICROUND-26MAY09DAWREB-OTHER
Will either competitor win the Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa fight by decision or the fight result in a draw/no contest: Decision / Draw / No Contest
KXUFCVICROUND-26MAY09CAROCH-OTHER
Will either competitor win the Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis fight by decision or the fight result in a draw/no contest: Decision / Draw / No Contest
KXUFCVICROUND-26MAY09SABGOM-OTHER
Will either competitor win the King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens fight by decision or the fight result in a draw/no contest: Decision / Draw / No Contest
KXUFCVICROUND-26MAY09GRESTE-OTHER
Will either competitor win the Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta fight by decision or the fight result in a draw/no contest: Decision / Draw / No Contest
KXUFCVICROUND-26MAY09VOLCOR-OTHER
Cluster 2
Will Sean Strickland win the Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland UFC fight in Round
Will Sean Strickland win the Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland UFC fight in Round 2: Sean Strickland to win in Round 2
KXUFCVICROUND-26MAY09CHISTR-STR2
Will Sean Strickland win the Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland UFC fight in Round 1: Sean Strickland to win in Round 1
KXUFCVICROUND-26MAY09CHISTR-STR1
Will Sean Strickland win the Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland UFC fight in Round 4: Sean Strickland to win in Round 4
KXUFCVICROUND-26MAY09CHISTR-STR4
Will Sean Strickland win the Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland UFC fight in Round 5: Sean Strickland to win in Round 5
KXUFCVICROUND-26MAY09CHISTR-STR5
Cluster 3
Will Khamzat Chimaev win the Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland UFC fight in Round
Will Khamzat Chimaev win the Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland UFC fight in Round 1: Khamzat Chimaev to win in Round 1
KXUFCVICROUND-26MAY09CHISTR-CHI1
Will Khamzat Chimaev win the Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland UFC fight in Round 2: Khamzat Chimaev to win in Round 2
KXUFCVICROUND-26MAY09CHISTR-CHI2
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.