Orlando Storm wins by over 4.5 points
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
4%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
7 contracts
Closes
May 17, 2026
9 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Dallas Renegades wins by over” vs “Orlando Storm wins by over”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Dallas Renegades wins by over
Dallas Renegades wins by over 13.5 points?: Dallas Renegades wins by over 13.5 points
KXUFLSPREAD-26MAY09DALBHM-DAL14
Dallas Renegades wins by over 3.5 points?: Dallas Renegades wins by over 3.5 points
KXUFLSPREAD-26MAY09DALBHM-DAL4
Dallas Renegades wins by over 6.5 points?: Dallas Renegades wins by over 6.5 points
KXUFLSPREAD-26MAY09DALBHM-DAL7
Dallas Renegades wins by over 7.5 points?: Dallas Renegades wins by over 7.5 points
KXUFLSPREAD-26MAY09DALBHM-DAL8
Cluster 2
Orlando Storm wins by over
Cluster 3
Birmingham Stallions wins by over 1.5 points
Analysis
This market asks whether the Orlando Storm will defeat their opponent by more than 4.5 points in an upcoming matchup. The current 8% probability suggests the market views this outcome as unlikely. The probability reflects Orlando's recent performance metrics and how they match up against their opponent, combined with factors like home-field advantage and current roster health. The main driver pushing this probability down appears to be relative team strength—the contracting volume concentrated on St. Louis Battlehawks suggests market participants expect a different outcome. Uncertainty will resolve when the game concludes and the final margin of victory is determined. The specific date of the matchup and both teams' recent form heading into that contest will be the primary catalysts affecting where this probability settles in the interim.
- ›Orlando Storm's offensive and defensive efficiency rankings relative to their opponent in recent games
- ›Whether the game is played at Orlando's home stadium or away, as home-field advantage typically shifts win probability by 2-3 points
- ›Head-to-head historical performance between these specific teams, including any relevant matchup-specific advantages
- ›Injury or roster status updates for key players on either team in the days before the scheduled game
- ›Current betting line and point spread from major sportsbooks, which typically incorporates similar information available to professional oddsmakers
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.