Ulsan Mayoral Election Winner
Leader sits at 61% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Kim Sang-wook
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
Kim Doo-kyum
Spread
26pp
contested
24h volume
$14K
liquid
Closes
Jun 3, 2026
6 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Ulsan Mayoral Election Winner: Kim
Analysis
This probability indicates market participants estimate a 53% chance that Kim Doo-kyum wins the Ulsan mayoral election, versus a 48% chance for Kim Sang-wook, with less than 1% probability distributed among other candidates or a tie. The tight pricing reflects genuine uncertainty between two similarly-positioned candidates. The market is pricing in factors such as recent polling data, regional voting patterns in Ulsan, each candidate's campaign momentum, and endorsements from provincial or national political figures. The resolution depends on the official election date and certified results from Ulsan authorities. Trading volume remains low on both contracts ($2,623 for Kim Sang-wook over 24 hours), suggesting limited market attention or that most positions are already established. Any significant new information about either candidate's viability, electability concerns, or shifts in Ulsan voter sentiment would likely move these probabilities meaningfully.
- ›Current polling or survey data from Ulsan showing relative support levels for each candidate
- ›Regional and historical voting patterns in Ulsan metropolitan elections and their predictive power for this race
- ›Endorsement patterns from major national political parties or provincial leadership figures
- ›Campaign spending and organizational strength reported for each candidate
- ›Official election date and any scheduled debates, candidate forums, or media events that could shift voter perception
What moved the line
- May 24Kim Sang-wook↓20pp53→33¢ · Polymarket
- May 24Kim Doo-kyum↑17pp43→60¢ · Polymarket
- May 21Kim Sang-wook↑13pp45→58¢ · Polymarket
- May 21Kim Doo-kyum↓7pp49→42¢ · Polymarket
- May 23Kim Sang-wook↓6pp59→53¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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