Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?
Leader sits at 53% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 48%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓1400
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
48¢
↓1350
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
197 days
Venue
Polymarket
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↓1100
0x00db2b…cc38
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↑1600
0xe5b0f3…bd01
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↑1700
0xe2ceaa…2e58
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↓1300
0xb86ff2…8339
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↑1650
0x9d59c0…ab1c
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↓1350
0x8602b2…b662
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↓1000
0x817a57…dcd5
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↑2000
0x4b7b69…4173
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↓1400
0x470488…e43f
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↑1800
0x45226b…5a0d
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↓1200
0x038887…e3d5
Analysis
This market estimates a 62% chance that USD/KRW will reach 1,800 Korean won per U.S. dollar at some point during 2026. The current won valuation relative to the dollar, combined with expectations around interest rate differentials and economic growth between the U.S. and South Korea, appears to be the primary driver of this probability. A weaker won or stronger dollar would move the market higher; stronger Korean economic data or Federal Reserve rate cuts could push it lower. The resolution hinges on actual spot rates throughout 2026, with particular sensitivity to quarterly GDP releases, central bank policy announcements from both the Fed and Bank of Korea, and any geopolitical shifts affecting capital flows to emerging markets.
- ›Current USD/KRW spot rate versus 1,800 level—the starting point determines how much movement is required
- ›Interest rate differential between Federal Reserve policy and Bank of Korea rates, which directly influences currency carry trade positioning
- ›Economic growth expectations for the U.S. versus South Korea in 2026, affecting relative demand for each currency
- ›Capital flow trends into or out of Korean assets, including equity and bond market activity
- ›Historical volatility bands for USD/KRW over similar time windows to assess whether 1,800 lies within or outside typical ranges
What moved the line
- Jun 13↓1350↓18pp69→51¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 12↓1300↓11pp47→36¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 12↓1350↑9pp60→69¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 13↓1300↑8pp36→44¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 11↓1350↑7pp53→60¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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