Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 56.0%
Leader sits at 85% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 76%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 56.0%
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
76¢
Above 58.0%
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$11
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 28, 2027
295 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above
Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 58.0%?: Above 58.0%
KXUSDTTBILL-27FEB28-T58.0
Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 70.0%?: Above 70.0%
KXUSDTTBILL-27FEB28-T70.0
Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 66.0%?: Above 66.0%
KXUSDTTBILL-27FEB28-T66.0
Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 64.0%?: Above 64.0%
KXUSDTTBILL-27FEB28-T64.0
Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 62.0%?: Above 62.0%
KXUSDTTBILL-27FEB28-T62.0
Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 60.0%?: Above 60.0%
KXUSDTTBILL-27FEB28-T60.0
Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 56.0%?: Above 56.0%
KXUSDTTBILL-27FEB28-T56.0
Analysis
This market tracks whether Tether (USDT) will hold more than 56% of its reserves in U.S. Treasury Bills by the end of 2026. The 85% probability reflects market confidence this threshold will be exceeded. The current level is driven by Tether's ongoing shift toward higher-quality collateral following regulatory pressure and competitive dynamics with other stablecoins. The main uncertainty centers on how aggressively Tether's management maintains Treasury allocation versus other reserve types, and whether regulatory changes affect their reserve strategy. The resolution will depend on Tether's officially reported reserve composition released at year-end 2026, which constitutes the decisive catalyst for settling this contract. Market participants are essentially pricing in continued Treasury preference as Tether responds to institutional and regulatory expectations around stablecoin backing.
- ›Tether's current publicly reported Treasury allocation and historical trend toward increasing this percentage
- ›Regulatory developments affecting stablecoin reserve requirements or acceptable collateral types through 2026
- ›Competitive pressure from other stablecoins like USDC, which may influence Tether's reserve composition strategy
- ›Interest rate environment and yields on Treasury Bills versus alternative reserve assets Tether might hold
- ›Tether's official year-end 2026 reserve attestation report, which will provide the definitive measurement for contract resolution
What moved the line
- May 2Above 62.0%↑8pp33→41¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.