VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 85% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Elaine Luria
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
James Osyf
Spread
80pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 16, 2026
38 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner
VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner: James Osyf
0x4ea35c…9dd7
VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner: Elaine Luria
0x84a682…e79d
VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner: Burk Stringfellow
0xba2bfb…c37f
VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner: Patrick Mosolf
0xd31952…8966
VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner: Matt Strickler
0xc337ab…67ca
Analysis
The 86% probability indicates that one candidate is heavily favored to win Virginia's 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary. This high confidence reflects either strong polling data, fundraising advantages, or endorsement consolidation favoring the leading candidate. The probability could shift downward if challengers gain ground through late campaign spending, unexpected endorsements, or changed voter sentiment closer to election day. Conversely, it could rise if the frontrunner further distances themselves in polling or secures additional institutional support. The primary election date will definitively resolve this market, eliminating current uncertainty about voter preferences.
- ›Current market pricing shows 86% for the leader versus 10% for the nearest alternative, indicating significant but not overwhelming consensus among traders
- ›Primary election outcomes often shift in final weeks based on ground-game effectiveness, debate performance, and last-minute endorsement moves
- ›The presence of multiple serious challengers at non-negligible probabilities suggests the race is not entirely settled despite the frontrunner's advantage
- ›Turnout levels in Democratic primaries can be unpredictable and may favor different candidate coalitions than current polling suggests
- ›Any major scandal, gaffe, or external political event in the final weeks before the primary could materially alter voter calculations
What moved the line
- May 3James Osyf↑11pp6→17¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Burk Stringfellow↓10pp14→4¢ · Polymarket
- May 8James Osyf↓7pp16→9¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Burk Stringfellow↑6pp8→14¢ · Polymarket
- May 6James Osyf↓4pp17→13¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.