Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by...
Leader sits at 10% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
August 30
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
June 30
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 30, 2026
113 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by
Analysis
This contract tracks whether Valve will add Cobblestone to Counter-Strike 2's competitive map pool by a specified deadline. At 26%, the market signals this outcome is unlikely but possible. Cobblestone was removed from the active pool in 2016 and has remained absent despite occasional community requests for map rotation changes. The probability reflects Valve's historical reluctance to reintroduce removed maps combined with uncertainty about their future pool management decisions. The main drivers of this estimate are: Valve's infrequent map pool updates and their typical preference for map replacements rather than additions to the existing rotation. The contract resolution depends on an official Valve announcement or patch note confirming Cobblestone's inclusion before the deadline date. Community sentiment, competitive viability data, and any announced map pool refresh would be the primary factors affecting this probability going forward.
- ›Valve has not added Cobblestone to the active pool in approximately 10 years despite maintaining it in other game modes, suggesting structural resistance to reintroduction
- ›Cobblestone's removal in 2016 was tied to specific competitive balance concerns that have never been officially addressed as resolved
- ›Recent Counter-Strike map pool updates have involved rotation and replacement rather than net additions to pool size
- ›Community demand for Cobblestone's return exists but remains a minority position compared to requests for other legacy maps
- ›The contract's deadline date determines whether this captures a specific window (e.g., by end of 2026) or represents a more indefinite timeframe affecting perceived likelihood
What moved the line
- May 6June 30↓11pp17→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 6August 30↓11pp20→9¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (10% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.