Venezuela leader end of 2026
Leader sits at 59% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Nicolás Maduro
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Delcy Rodríguez
Spread
31pp
contested
24h volume
$26K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Venezuela leader end of 2026
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Nicolás Maduro will remain Venezuela's leader through December 2026. At 65%, traders view Maduro's continuation as more likely than not, but with meaningful uncertainty—a 23% probability assigned to an alternative outcome suggests significant doubt among some participants. The current level reflects Maduro's consolidated control of state institutions and military support, balanced against ongoing economic crisis, international pressure, and periodic opposition challenges. Key drivers include whether opposition movements gain momentum in coming months and how external actors (particularly the U.S. and regional powers) adjust their stance. Resolution depends on Venezuela's political calendar, military loyalty dynamics, and whether any major institutional rupture occurs before year-end. The gap between the leader and runner-up suggests the market views Maduro's position as durable but not certain.
- ›Maduro controls the military, electoral machinery, and state security apparatus, which has historically proven resilient against internal challenges
- ›Venezuela's economic conditions—inflation, shortages, and external sanctions—create sustained pressure but have not yet destabilized regime control in 2024-2025
- ›Opposition fragmentation and international recognition disagreements limit the practical capacity to force a leadership transition
- ›Military defection or schism represents the primary mechanism that could remove Maduro before December 2026, but no credible signs of such rupture are currently evident
- ›U.S. and allied policy shifts could influence outcomes if they escalate intervention or shift diplomatic recognition
What moved the line
- May 3María Corina Machado↓14pp22→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Delcy Rodríguez↑4pp19→23¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.