Ventuals FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 36% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 29%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$1B
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
29¢
$1.5B
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$13
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Ventuals FDV above ___ one day after launch
Ventuals FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
0x223235…d474
Ventuals FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1B
0x9f792d…5c6a
Ventuals FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $800M
0x4f5fd3…2646
Ventuals FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M
0x86575c…7e03
Ventuals FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M
0x2774a8…3194
Ventuals FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $2B
0x004292…d1de
Ventuals FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1.5B
0x035a88…80b5
Analysis
This contract estimates a 35% probability that Ventuals will achieve a fully diluted valuation (FDV) above $1.5 billion on its first day of trading. The current probability reflects modest confidence in reaching this valuation tier, sitting between the 17% implied by lower FDV thresholds ($800M-$1B) and the 89-94% probability assigned to much lower valuations ($50M-$100M). Key drivers include Ventuals' current market positioning, comparable project launches in the same ecosystem, and momentum leading up to the token release date. The resolution will depend entirely on the trading activity and market conditions observed during the first 24 hours post-launch, making near-term announcements, exchange listings, and broader market sentiment critical variables. Contract pricing shows meaningful disagreement across different valuation scenarios, suggesting genuine uncertainty about where initial demand will settle.
- ›Current price correlation: lower FDV thresholds trade at 17-44¢ while $50-100M thresholds trade at 89-94¢, indicating market consensus expects modest initial valuations but meaningful debate about mid-tier outcomes
- ›Comparable launch analysis: similar token projects' first-day FDVs and how Ventuals' metrics stack against historical precedent for projects in its category
- ›Exchange listing and liquidity conditions: which platforms list VENTUALS, trading pair availability, and initial liquidity depth on launch day
- ›Market conditions at launch: concurrent events, macroeconomic factors, and broader crypto market sentiment during the specific 24-hour resolution window
- ›Community and pre-launch activity signals: transaction volume, holder distribution, and engagement metrics in the period immediately before trading begins
What moved the line
- May 6$2B↓37pp42→5¢ · Polymarket
- May 7$800M↓30pp36→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$1B↓13pp34→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 7$1B↑10pp21→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 2$1.5B↓9pp44→35¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.