What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 30?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 4 contracts. Kalshi at 28%, Polymarket at 34% — a 6pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
28%
1 contract
Polymarket
34%
3 contracts
Cross-venue gap
6pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
4 contracts
Closes
Jul 1, 2028
745 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 28¢ · Polymarket 34¢ · 6pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (28¢, 1 contract) and sell on Polymarket (34¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 2% of their title tokens — “What price will Ethereum hit in 2026” vs “Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026
Cluster 2
Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2
Analysis
This probability reflects a 69% consensus that San Francisco Bay Area median home values will exceed $1.262 million by April 2027. The forecast sits midway between Kalshi traders (83%, favoring higher prices) and Polymarket participants (41%, more skeptical), indicating material disagreement about regional housing trajectory. The primary driver is inflation expectations and mortgage rate dynamics—higher rates typically suppress price appreciation while persistent cost-of-living pressures support prices. The key near-term catalyst is the Federal Reserve's June 17, 2026 interest rate decision and forward guidance, which directly influences mortgage availability and buyer demand. Resolution depends on actual median values reported by real estate indices in late April 2027, with Q1 2027 housing data releases providing early signals of price direction.
- ›San Francisco median home prices have historically exhibited higher volatility and sensitivity to interest rate changes than national averages
- ›Current mortgage rates and Fed policy expectations (next decision June 17, 2026) will materially impact buyer affordability and demand elasticity
- ›The 42 percentage point gap between venue probabilities suggests genuine uncertainty about data interpretation or regional economic assumptions
- ›Zillow Home Value Index and comparable indices will provide monthly readings through early 2027, offering measurable precursor data before April resolution
- ›Tech sector employment trends and remote work adoption in the Bay Area directly correlate with housing demand and pricing power
What moved the line
- Jun 15↓ 1,500↓11pp81→70¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 10↓ 1,000↑3pp23→26¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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