Will Jerome Powell be out as Chair pro tempore of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before May 20, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$280
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
9 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Jerome Powell be out as Chair pro tempore of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before May 22, 2026
Analysis
This represents traders' assessment that Jerome Powell will step down as Federal Reserve Chair before June 1, 2026—currently priced at 91%. Powell's tenure as Chair has faced periodic political pressure, though he was reappointed to a second term in 2022 and is scheduled to serve until 2026. The high probability reflects either imminent personnel changes or specific near-term events traders expect. Key drivers of this estimate would be public statements from the administration, congressional actions, health developments, or unexpected policy conflicts. The resolution depends on formal announcement or confirmation of Powell's departure. Notably, contracts pricing exits before May 20, 22, and 31 show much lower probabilities (18-59%), suggesting traders see the June 1 deadline as capturing most anticipated near-term risk while expecting Powell to likely remain in the immediate days ahead.
- ›Powell's Fed Chair term is constitutionally slated through 2026, with no announced resignation or replacement candidate as of mid-May 2026
- ›The sharp probability drop from 91% (before June 1) to 27% (before May 20) indicates traders expect most potential exits, if any, clustered near the deadline rather than imminent
- ›24-hour trading volume concentrates on the June 1 contract ($2,126) versus earlier dates, suggesting this timeframe captures primary uncertainty about Powell's status
- ›No scheduled congressional confirmation votes, public health announcements, or policy crises have been reported as catalysts for the elevated probability
- ›The outcome depends on formal resignation, removal, or death—verifiable events with minimal ambiguity in resolution
What moved the line
- May 21Before May 22, 2026↓3pp5→2¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in fed rate
- Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...last 93% · 5d
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- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...last 88% · 12d
- How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?: ≤49last 97% · 14d
- Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...last 97% · 14d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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In fed rate
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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