SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 8 outcomes8 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 3 min agoCloses Jun 30, 2026 · 52d

What will Silver (SI) settle at in June?

Bracket>$115

Leader sits at 23% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 22%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

23%

$70-$80

runner-up 22¢leader 23¢

Outcomes

8

winner-take-all

Runner-up

22¢

$80-$90

Spread

1pp

contested

24h volume

$3K

modest

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

52 days

Venue

Polymarket

8 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtoday$70-$80: 24% (28 days, 24 points)$70-$80: 24% on 2026-05-07$80-$90: 25% (28 days, 18 points)$80-$90: 25% on 2026-05-07$60-$70: 16% (28 days, 28 points)$60-$70: 16% on 2026-05-08
$70-$8024¢$80-$9025¢$60-$7016¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 28d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This contract reflects a 23% probability that silver will close June futures above $115 per ounce. The current reading suggests traders view a sustained rally to that level as unlikely in the near term. Silver prices are primarily driven by industrial demand, USD strength, and real interest rates; a weakening dollar or spike in manufacturing activity could push prices higher, while stronger-than-expected inflation data tightening monetary policy would pressure downside. The June contract expiration itself—when futures settle to spot prices—is the key event determining the outcome. Until then, Fed policy signals and economic data throughout May will be primary drivers of directional moves.

  • Silver settled below $90/oz in late April 2026; reaching >$115 requires a 28%+ rally in roughly 4 weeks
  • USD weakness and lower real interest rates have historically been the strongest correlates of silver rallies above $110
  • Polymarket volume on this contract is low ($934 in 24h vol), suggesting limited conviction and potential price inefficiency
  • The >$115 contract trades at 5¢ while $100-$115 trades at 11¢, indicating steep odds decline in each price bracket
  • June futures contracts expire mid-month, creating a hard settlement date with no extension; spot price at expiration is the sole determinant

What moved the line

  • May 7$80-$905pp2025¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7$50-$604pp84¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7$60-$704pp2117¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2$80-$903pp1720¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.