What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit in May 2026?
Leader sits at 41% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↑ $450
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
↓ $390
Spread
22pp
contested
24h volume
$10K
modest
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
7 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit in May 2026
What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $450
0x73c0d9…9f05
What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $390
0x7fd713…6c16
What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $465
0x85b426…9032
What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $480
0xe8ce88…780d
What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $360
0xdac370…f751
Analysis
This question tracks whether Tesla's stock price will reach $465 or higher before the end of May 2026. The current 90% probability assigned to a downside outcome ($405) reflects market expectations that Tesla is unlikely to see significant upward movement in the near term. This is driven by two competing forces: the contract composition shows investors pricing in a roughly 49% chance of moderate downside ($390 range) versus smaller probabilities across multiple upside scenarios. The resolution depends on Tesla's actual stock performance over the remaining trading days in May, influenced by earnings reports, production data, macroeconomic conditions, and sector-specific developments. With May 2026 nearly complete, the primary catalyst is any unexpected company announcements or broader market shifts that could drive volatility before month-end.
- ›Tesla's stock price has not yet reached the $465 threshold, with only days remaining in May 2026 to do so
- ›The downside contract at $390 shows 49% support while the $465 upside contract shows only 12% support, indicating market skepticism about sustained upward momentum
- ›Trading volume is concentrated in lower-price-range contracts, suggesting more market conviction around moderate declines than sharp rallies
- ›External factors including macroeconomic conditions, interest rate environment, and sector performance will materially affect Tesla's price action in the remaining May trading days
- ›Any unexpected earnings surprises, guidance changes, or production announcements could create sudden volatility that affects whether the $465 level is touched
What moved the line
- May 21↓ $390↓21pp45→24¢ · Polymarket
- May 20↓ $390↓20pp65→45¢ · Polymarket
- May 19↓ $390↑17pp48→65¢ · Polymarket
- May 19↑ $450↓12pp28→16¢ · Polymarket
- May 21↑ $450↑10pp17→27¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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