When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
6%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6K
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
196 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
When will Bitcoin hit $150k
When will Bitcoin hit $150k?: by December 31, 2026
0x02deb9…41e8
Analysis
This 8% probability reflects market consensus that Bitcoin has roughly a 1-in-12 chance of reaching $150,000 by year-end 2026—a gain of approximately 70% from current levels in roughly 7 months. The low probability pricing suggests traders view this move as requiring significant catalysts. Bitcoin's price is driven by macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, institutional adoption rates, and technical momentum. Key near-term catalysts include Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and broader risk-asset sentiment. Historical volatility during election years and monetary policy shifts could shift this probability meaningfully. The resolution depends entirely on spot price action; any price-discovery mechanisms or derivatives moves don't affect the outcome.
- ›Bitcoin would need to appreciate approximately 70% in 7 months, requiring annualized gains exceeding 120%, which is attainable but uncommon outside bull-market conditions
- ›Federal Reserve monetary policy stance and inflation data releases through Q4 2026 will materially influence risk appetite and asset valuations
- ›Regulatory announcements regarding cryptocurrency classification, taxation, or institutional custody rules could shift adoption rates and price discovery
- ›Market structure factors including options expiration dates, futures funding rates, and spot exchange order flow can amplify or dampen volatility needed for this move
- ›Bitcoin's correlation with equities and risk assets means broad market drawdowns or recessions would work against the target, while risk-on sentiment would support it
Recently closed in bitcoin
- US Trade Deficit in 2026?: 600–700Blast 33% · 0d
- Bitcoin all time high by ___last 7% · 0d
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000last 72% · 0d
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 120,000last 86% · 0d
- Will MicroStrategy announce holding ___ BTC by December 31, 2026?: 1M+last 26% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (6% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In bitcoin
Related reading
Bitcoin Sentiment Sours: Market Paints a Bearish Picture for Q3 2026
Bitcoin is down 2.31% on the day (IBIT), and prediction markets now give a 72% probability that BTC will drop below $55,000 in 2026, up 2 points today. The odds of reclaiming $100,000 by July 1 are just 1%, a stark reversal of relatively recent bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin Sell-Off Deepens: Markets Price Sub-$50k Probability Above 50%
Bitcoin tumbled over 5%, dragging down IBIT and ETHE. Prediction markets now assign a 53% probability of BTC hitting $50k and a 39% chance of $45k by year-end. Risk-off sentiment dominates as traders flee crypto.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.