Where is Ethereum price heading?
Leader sits at 13% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 11%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1,750 to 1,999.99
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
11¢
2,000 to 2,249.99
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$339
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
148 days
Venue
Kalshi
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
eth price on jan 1, 2027
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 2,250 to 2,499.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B2375
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 2,000 to 2,249.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B2125
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 1,750 to 1,999.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B1875
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 999.99 or below
KXETHY-27JAN0100-T1000.00
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 3,250 to 3,499.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B3375
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 3,000 to 3,249.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B3125
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 2,750 to 2,999.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B2875
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 2,500 to 2,749.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B2625
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 1,500 to 1,749.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B1625
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 1,250 to 1,499.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B1375
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 1,000 to 1,249.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B1125
Analysis
This represents an 13% probability that Ethereum will trade between $1,750 and $1,999.99 on January 1, 2027—currently the single most likely outcome among 11 discrete price ranges. The central question is whether ETH remains near current levels or moves significantly higher or lower over the next five months. Market participants are pricing meaningful downside risk (22% combined probability below $1,250) alongside upside potential (19% combined probability above $2,250), reflecting uncertainty about macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and Ethereum's competitive position in decentralized finance. The distribution suggests no outcome commands strong conviction; the leading scenario captures only 13 cents on the dollar. Key catalysts include major protocol upgrades, institutional adoption announcements, and broader cryptocurrency market movements tied to Federal Reserve policy and bitcoin price action, which typically drive correlated moves in major altcoins.
- ›Current ETH spot price relative to $1,875 midpoint of leading contract; any move above $2,000 or below $1,600 would shift probability mass significantly
- ›Regulatory clarity on Ethereum's classification as a commodity or security in major jurisdictions, particularly the United States
- ›Comparative performance of rival smart-contract platforms (Solana, Sui, Monad) and shifts in developer migration or token liquidity
- ›Federal Reserve monetary policy trajectory and risk-asset appetite, which historically correlate with altcoin valuations
- ›Concrete milestones in Ethereum's scaling roadmap (Dencun adoption, EOF deployment) that could affect transaction costs and user growth metrics
Recently closed in bitcoin
- Will Bitcoin hit $200,000?last 38% · 1d
- Will Bitcoin hit $100,000?$76,500 or abovelast 37% · 1d
- Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin?last 15% · 1d
- Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2029last 17% · 22d
- Will BTC trimmed mean be below $62500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026last 17% · 36d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in bitcoin.
In bitcoin
Related reading
Bitcoin price action: ETF inflows push near-term odds higher
Bitcoin’s Aug 7, 2026 settlement price saw a sharp 5¢ move on the $63,000 tranche, driven by the largest single-day ETF net inflow in three weeks. The monthly trimmed mean above $65,000 now trades at 73¢, reflecting renewed bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin Range-Bound but ETH Strength Points to Altcoin Season
Bitcoin prediction markets are steady with the Aug 7 price centered around $67K (67¢). Ethereum has a 59% chance of being above $2000 by end of August (ETHMAXMON). The crypto market is showing signs of rotation into altcoins, with XRP and SOL also seeing modest upward bias. No major catalyst today, but ETH’s relative strength is notable.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.