Where is Ethereum price heading?
Leader sits at 14% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
10¢
Ethereum price at Aug 12, 20
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$9.8M
liquid
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
142 days
Venue
Kalshi
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “eth price on jan 1, 2027” vs “Ethereum price at Aug 1”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
eth price on jan 1, 2027
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B2125
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B2375
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B2625
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B1875
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B2875
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B1625
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B1375
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?
KXETHY-27JAN0100-T1000.00
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B1125
Cluster 2
Ethereum price at Aug 1
Ethereum price at Aug 14, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KXETHD-26AUG1417-T1779.99
Ethereum price at Aug 14, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KXETHD-26AUG1417-T1819.99
Ethereum price at Aug 14, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KXETH-26AUG1417-B1920
Ethereum price at Aug 14, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KXETHD-26AUG1417-T1859.99
Ethereum price at Aug 14, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KXETHD-26AUG1417-T1899.99
Ethereum price at Aug 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KXETHD-26AUG1217-T1849.99
What moved the line
- Aug 6ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?↑3pp13→16¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Bitcoin price action: ETF inflows push near-term odds higher
Bitcoin’s Aug 7, 2026 settlement price saw a sharp 5¢ move on the $63,000 tranche, driven by the largest single-day ETF net inflow in three weeks. The monthly trimmed mean above $65,000 now trades at 73¢, reflecting renewed bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin Range-Bound but ETH Strength Points to Altcoin Season
Bitcoin prediction markets are steady with the Aug 7 price centered around $67K (67¢). Ethereum has a 59% chance of being above $2000 by end of August (ETHMAXMON). The crypto market is showing signs of rotation into altcoins, with XRP and SOL also seeing modest upward bias. No major catalyst today, but ETH’s relative strength is notable.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.