Which banks will fail by end of 2026
Leader sits at 47% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
BMO
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
34¢
Truist
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$10
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
19 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which banks will fail by end of 2026
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: KeyBank
0x4e980e…f833
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: RBC
0xbeb364…3405
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: Truist
0x234363…f393
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: Wells Fargo
0x823ec3…7ac1
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: UBS
0x760d22…fe66
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: HSBC
0x792942…167c
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: JPMorgan Chase
0x62e548…4112
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: BNY
0x6eb62d…7f8f
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: Scotiabank
0x9451a6…fe7b
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: US Bank
0xfa8853…8019
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: Morgan Stanley
0xecee7d…0fa6
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: Citigroup
0xc77996…13f3
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: Deutsche Bank
0xb8feb6…2f7c
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: BNP Paribas
0x8f8012…dcab
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: BMO
0x30b2de…dad1
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: Lloyds
0x2f591c…0580
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: Santander
0x0914b2…6310
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: Bank of America
0x351de0…4898
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: Goldman Sachs
0xb9e271…ab1f
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that at least one major bank will fail by December 31, 2026. The 8% level reflects relatively low near-term systemic risk, though higher than 2024-2025 baseline expectations. Markets are pricing in moderate concern around interest-rate volatility, deposit stability, and asset quality deterioration as key drivers. Investor attention centers on Truist (priced at 28¢ across contracts), suggesting concentrated concern about a specific institution rather than broad-based banking sector collapse. The resolution hinges on official regulatory determinations or formal FDIC intervention by year-end. Key uncertainty factors include Q2-Q3 2026 earnings seasons, which will reveal loan loss provisions and net interest margin pressure, and any macroeconomic shocks affecting credit quality or liquidity conditions.
- ›Truist commands 28¢ pricing versus 3-5¢ for other major banks, indicating market focus on a single institution rather than systemic risk
- ›Interest-rate environment through mid-2026 will materially affect net interest margins and deposit flight risk for regional and mid-cap banks
- ›Corporate and commercial real estate loan performance data in Q2-Q3 2026 earnings will signal asset-quality deterioration or stability
- ›Regulatory capital ratios and stress-test results (if conducted) provide objective thresholds for intervention decisions
- ›No scheduled major regulatory event or stress test is formally planned for 2026, making resolution dependent on deterioration triggers rather than scheduled reviews
What moved the line
- May 7BNY↓28pp35→7¢ · Polymarket
- May 6BMO↑24pp24→48¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Truist↑17pp16→33¢ · Polymarket
- May 6KeyBank↑11pp4→15¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Truist↑11pp5→16¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.