Which characters will appear in Avengers
Leader sits at 87% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 85%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Doomsday?: Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
85¢
Doomsday?: Benedict Cumberba
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$215
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 18, 2026
223 days
Venue
Polymarket
19 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday
Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine
0x6fe9f2…ebde
Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Tom Holland as Spider-Man
0x116ef6…d3ad
Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Jonathan Majors as Kang
0xdf0c6b…4d8d
Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp
0x4889f2…b95f
Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan
0x76415d…602f
Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Halle Berry as Storm
0xc5b8a7…fb72
Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Gwyneth Paltrow as Pepper Potts
0xfb0b73…0178
Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Brie Larson as Captain Marvel
0x7560d1…82c5
Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man
0xd4ba56…d5d9
Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange
0x2391aa…a7ed
Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop
0xf9a646…c173
Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Benedict Wong as Wong
0xb88efe…956a
Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel
0xaa171f…3296
Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Xochitl Gomez as America Chavez
0x193811…4eeb
Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau
0xe9f21f…da34
Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool
0x5f74b5…c837
Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man
0x07eaad…eb2d
Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Mark Ruffalo as Hulk
0xd6696b…dd35
Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Hugh Jackman as Wolverine
0x9a22f2…a716
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that at least one major character will appear in Avengers: Doomsday, the upcoming MCU film. The 90% level suggests traders view character appearances as highly likely, given Marvel's typical roster strategy for ensemble films. The primary driver is Marvel Studios' established pattern of featuring multiple established heroes in Avengers events. What would move this probability: official cast announcements from Marvel, trailer releases showing specific characters, or director/studio statements about the film's scope. The biggest resolution catalyst is the film's theatrical release and any official cast reveals in trailers or press materials before then. Current market data shows varied confidence across individual characters—Doctor Strange trades at 80% while Spider-Man variants range from 25% to 64%—suggesting uncertainty about which specific heroes will participate rather than doubt about the film featuring recognizable characters overall.
- ›Tom Holland Spider-Man contract trades at 64¢ while Andrew Garfield Spider-Man trades at 25¢, indicating market assigns much higher probability to MCU continuity appearance than multiverse inclusion
- ›Benedict Cumberbatch Doctor Strange has the highest individual character probability at 80¢, suggesting traders expect established Avengers to return
- ›Jonathan Majors/Kang contract trades at only 17¢ despite being the stated villain, potentially reflecting casting uncertainty or narrative direction doubts
- ›The 90% leader probability significantly exceeds all individual character probabilities, indicating markets expect multiple characters but disagree on which specific ones
- ›24-hour volume concentrates on Spider-Man and Doctor Strange contracts, suggesting these are primary focal points for trader conviction changes
What moved the line
- May 7Doomsday?: Benedict Wong as Wong↑23pp60→83¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Doomsday?: Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop↓22pp67→45¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Doomsday?: Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp↑20pp32→52¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Doomsday?: Halle Berry as Storm↑20pp40→60¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Doomsday?: Xochitl Gomez as America Chavez↑17pp40→57¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.