How many SpaceX launches in May?
Leader sits at 90% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 9%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
12
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
9¢
11
Spread
81pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$75
thin orderbook
Closes
May 31, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many SpaceX launches in May
Analysis
This market is pricing the probability that SpaceX will conduct 14 or more orbital launches during May 2026 at 3 cents, reflecting expectations of fewer launches in that month. The aggregated contracts show traders believe 12 launches is most likely (51%), with meaningful probability mass around 10-13 launches (42-43% range for each). The low price for 14+ reflects SpaceX's typical monthly cadence and the constraints of launch schedules, weather windows, and vehicle availability. May's outcome will depend on whether the company maintains or exceeds its recent operational pace and encounters no significant delays. The resolution occurs at the end of May 2026 when official launch counts become final.
- ›SpaceX's 2025 launch rate and current booster availability; recent months show actual monthly volume has averaged 9-11 launches
- ›Scheduled manifest publicly announced for May 2026 compared to actual slot availability and typical launch-to-launch turnaround times
- ›Weather and technical delays at Starbase and Cape Canaveral; single-month setbacks can shift outcomes by 2-3 launches
- ›Market clustering around 12 launches suggests traders view that as modal outcome, with 14+ requiring sustained acceleration above recent norms
- ›The 51% probability for 12 launches as market leader indicates high confidence in that specific bin relative to dispersed alternatives
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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