OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: <500B
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
4%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
585 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: <500B
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: <500B
0x94f5db…584f
Analysis
This probability represents the odds that OpenAI's initial public offering will close with a valuation below $500 billion. Currently priced at 15%, it reflects market expectations that OpenAI will either go public at a higher valuation or not IPO by end-2026. The main factors influencing this low probability are OpenAI's demonstrated revenue growth and market positioning as a leader in AI, which typically command higher valuations, and the company's ability to raise private capital at substantial valuations. The biggest catalyst is any official IPO filing or announcement from OpenAI leadership, which would provide clarity on timing and valuation expectations. Secondary timing factors include regulatory developments around AI governance and competitive pressures from other AI companies pursuing public markets. The market currently assigns roughly equal weight to scenarios where OpenAI goes public at significantly higher valuations versus scenarios where no IPO occurs before year-end 2026.
- ›OpenAI raised private funding at $80B valuation in October 2023; subsequent market developments and revenue growth would typically support higher IPO valuations
- ›73% market probability assigned to 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' suggests market skepticism about near-term public offering timing
- ›Comparable valuations: recent SpaceX private rounds and other AI company public offerings provide benchmarks for IPO pricing expectations
- ›No official IPO filing or concrete timeline has been announced; regulatory clarity on AI companies may accelerate or delay public market entry
- ›OpenAI's competitive position and revenue trajectory relative to other enterprise software companies historically valued at 2-5x revenue multiples
Recently closed in ai tech
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ai tech
Related reading
AI Model Race Intensifies as Anthropic Gains on OpenAI
The AI leadership race is heating up with Anthropic's Claude 5 release expectation jumping 16¢ to 38¢ for a June 30 launch, while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 probability dropped 8¢ to 79¢. Markets now favor Anthropic to have the best AI model by end of June at 84¢. The 'Best AI in Jun' contract trades at 63¢ for Anthropic vs 16¢ for Google.
OpenAI IPO Fading: 'No IPO by 2026' Surges to 66¢
OpenAI's IPO probability continues declining as markets price in long-term privacy, while Databricks emerges as the likely AI bellwether for a potential tech listing window reopening.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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