Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 90% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
90%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$22
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
215 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?
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Analysis
This probability represents whether Anthropic's valuation will exceed OpenAI's valuation at any point during 2026. The 90% likelihood reflects current market expectations that Anthropic will achieve a higher valuation than OpenAI within this calendar year. The main drivers are recent funding rounds and valuation announcements from both companies. Anthropic's December 2024 funding round valued the company at $60 billion, while OpenAI's most recent public valuation discussion occurred during its February 2025 funding discussions. The key uncertainty involves how each company's valuation changes through 2026—whether through new funding rounds, acquisition activity, or strategic events. No single scheduled resolution event exists; instead, resolution depends on public announcements or documented valuation data from either company during the year. Market participants are pricing in a high probability that at least one company will announce a new valuation that crosses this threshold.
- ›Anthropic's December 2024 valuation of $60 billion versus OpenAI's last documented valuation and any new funding announcements either company makes in 2026
- ›The timing and terms of potential new funding rounds for either company, which would establish official new valuations
- ›Public statements or third-party valuations from industry analysts, investment banks, or acquisition discussions involving either company
- ›Changes in AI market dynamics, deployment adoption rates, or revenue performance that could influence investor valuations of both companies
- ›Whether OpenAI pursues a public listing or other corporate event that would establish a market-determined valuation in 2026
Recently closed in ai tech
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (90% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ai tech
Related reading
AI Model Race Intensifies: Claude Mythos Release Jumps 25 Cents
Anthropic is the favorite for best AI model in June at 85 cents, but the big story is the Claude Mythos release timeline. The market for a Mythos release by June 15 surged 25 cents to 46 cents, while the Claude 5 release by June 30 rose 8 cents to 37 cents. This signals a major AI release cycle is imminent.
AI Model Race Intensifies as Anthropic Gains on OpenAI
The AI leadership race is heating up with Anthropic's Claude 5 release expectation jumping 16¢ to 38¢ for a June 30 launch, while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 probability dropped 8¢ to 79¢. Markets now favor Anthropic to have the best AI model by end of June at 84¢. The 'Best AI in Jun' contract trades at 63¢ for Anthropic vs 16¢ for Google.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.