Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027
Leader sits at 36% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 18%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Somaliland
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
18¢
Syria
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$25
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?: Lebanon
0xd826ba…4f13
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?: Saudi Arabia
0x15f442…8ec6
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?: Somaliland
0x82ec29…4942
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?: Azerbaijan
0x0150e8…89d9
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?: Syria
0x985b12…8e7f
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?: Kuwait
0x4e4d65…e888
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?: Oman
0xc1bd3b…4237
Analysis
This 36% probability reflects trader expectations that at least one additional country will sign the Abraham Accords framework before the end of 2026. The accords, which normalize Arab-Israeli relations, have expanded beyond initial signatories (UAE, Bahrain) to include Morocco, Sudan, and others. Current pricing suggests moderate confidence in further expansion within the next seven months. The probability is elevated by ongoing diplomatic engagement in the region and normalization momentum, but tempered by political complications in potential signatory countries and the absence of imminent announcements. Key drivers include whether Arab League states coordinate positions on new signings and how the Israeli-Palestinian conflict dynamics evolve. The resolution depends on official announcements of accords signings rather than preliminary talks, making the timeline uncertain despite active diplomatic efforts.
- ›No major country has publicly announced plans to join the accords in 2026, suggesting current momentum may have plateaued after Sudan's complications
- ›Morocco's accession in late 2020 remains one of the most recent major additions, indicating the pool of willing signatories may be narrowing
- ›Ongoing Israeli-Palestinian tensions create political risk for Arab states considering normalization, which could delay or prevent new signings through end-2026
- ›The accords framework has expanded to 7+ countries since 2020, demonstrating sustained diplomatic momentum that could support additional signings
- ›Any new accords signing requires formal government action and public announcement, creating a discrete, verifiable resolution point for this contract
What moved the line
- May 6Lebanon↑10pp9→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Azerbaijan↑7pp13→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Lebanon↓5pp14→9¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Kuwait↑4pp9→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Azerbaijan↓4pp20→16¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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