Who visited Epstein's Island
Leader sits at 8% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Steve Bannon
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
Woody Allen
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$747
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who visited Epstein's Island
Who visited Epstein's Island?: Kevin Spacey
0xa38abe…7577
Who visited Epstein's Island?: Woody Allen
0xf0d449…0c6c
Who visited Epstein's Island?: Steve Bannon
0xf913e9…09e4
Who visited Epstein's Island?: Jay-Z
0x5ee101…8038
Who visited Epstein's Island?: Deepak Chopra
0x2fe12a…386f
Who visited Epstein's Island?: Harvey Weinstein
0x17a4f0…f329
Who visited Epstein's Island?: Peter Attia
0x2ac103…dc88
Who visited Epstein's Island?: Steven Tisch
0x4f781e…d5c1
Analysis
This represents a 10% probability that Woody Allen visited Epstein's Island, based on aggregated contract prices across prediction markets. The current level reflects limited public evidence directly linking Allen to the island, though historical associations and media speculation provide some signal. Key drivers include documentary releases, legal proceedings, or credible witness testimony that could establish presence records. The probability could shift significantly if new court documents are unsealed, investigative journalism surfaces flight logs, or corroborating testimonies emerge during ongoing litigation. Near-term uncertainty hinges on whether major media outlets publish verified information before summer 2026, as evidenced by the high volume on the SNL Weekend Update contract predicting on-air mention of the topic.
- ›No publicly verified flight logs or photographic evidence has definitively placed Woody Allen on Epstein's Island as of May 2026
- ›Historical associations between Allen and Epstein social circles have been documented but do not confirm island visitation
- ›Pending litigation and investigation-related document releases could surface new evidence; timing and content remain uncertain
- ›Media attention cycles and investigative journalism output will likely determine if new testimony or records reach public knowledge in the coming months
- ›The 10% probability implies markets assign roughly 9-to-1 odds against this claim versus other named individuals in the contract set
What moved the line
- May 7Peter Attia↓7pp11→4¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Woody Allen↑3pp9→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Deepak Chopra↑3pp6→9¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.