Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
97%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
351 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary
Analysis
This 40% probability represents traders' estimate that the top three finishers in California's 2026 gubernatorial primary will be Becerra, Hilton, and Steyer in that exact order. Predicting exact finishing order is inherently difficult because small shifts in voter preference or turnout can reshuffle rankings. The current level reflects moderate confidence in this particular sequence, driven by polling data on frontrunner positioning and regional support patterns. The primary election itself will definitively resolve this outcome, eliminating all uncertainty about the final vote counts and candidate rankings. Changes in polling, endorsement shifts, or campaign spending could alter market probabilities substantially before voting occurs.
- ›Becerra's status as the presumed frontrunner and whether his support holds or consolidates behind a different candidate
- ›Relative positioning of Hilton and Steyer in recent public polling, since small margins between second and third place heavily influence exact order outcomes
- ›Turnout composition assumptions—different demographic groups favoring different candidates could shift final rankings significantly
- ›Historical California primary dynamics showing whether top-tier candidates maintain polling positions through election day or experience late movement
- ›The distribution across six competing finishing orders shows 40% is the plurality outcome, not a dominant consensus, with 60% probability on alternative sequences combined
What moved the line
- Jun 10Becerra, Hilton, Steyer↑4pp95→99¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
Midterm Election Odds Shift: Democrats Favored for House, Senate Toss-Up
Democrats are now 78¢ to win the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a coin flip with Republicans at 56¢. The California Governor primary heavily favors Xavier Becerra at 89¢. Peru's election shows Keiko Fujimori solidifying at 93¢.
California & LA Primaries Heat Up: Hilton Surges, Pratt Fades
The California gubernatorial primary and Los Angeles mayoral race are seeing major positioning shifts. Xavier Becerra is the heavy favorite (99¢) in CA, but Steve Hilton surged 7 cents to 96 cents to advance to the runoff. In LA, Spencer Pratt's mayoral bid continues to lose momentum, falling 3 cents to 1 cent, while the Nithya Raman vs Karen Bass matchup solidifies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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