Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary
Leader sits at 5% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Becerra, Steyer, Hilton, Porter, Bianco, Mahan
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
Becerra, Hilton, Bianco, Ste
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
351 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary
Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?: Becerra, Hilton, Bianco, Steyer, Mahan, Porter
KXCAGOVPRIMARYEXACT-26JUN02-BEC-HIL-BIA-STE-MAH-POR
Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?: Steyer, Hilton, Becerra, Bianco, Porter, Mahan
KXCAGOVPRIMARYEXACT-26JUN02-STE-HIL-BEC-BIA-POR-MAH
Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?: Becerra, Steyer, Hilton, Porter, Bianco, Mahan
KXCAGOVPRIMARYEXACT-26JUN02-BEC-STE-HIL-POR-BIA-MAH
Analysis
This 9% probability reflects the odds that California's 2026 gubernatorial primary will produce a specific top-six finishing order: Becerra, Hilton, Steyer, Bianco, Porter, and Mahan, in that exact sequence. With six major candidates and numerous possible permutations, any single ordering is inherently unlikely. The leading scenario prices in Becerra's strong polling position and apparent frontrunner status, though California primaries have historically produced surprises. Movement in this probability would likely reflect significant polling shifts among the top tier, changes in campaign momentum, or unexpected endorsements that reshape the competitive landscape. The primary election itself, scheduled for June 2026, will definitively resolve this outcome—any deviation from the exact specified order results in a zero payout.
- ›Current polling shows candidate viability and relative positioning among Becerra, Hilton, Steyer, and others, directly affecting the plausibility of this specific ordering
- ›Late campaign momentum and endorsement patterns in the weeks before June 2026 primary could shift vote shares enough to alter the precise finishing sequence
- ›Turnout dynamics and regional strength variations across California's diverse electorate can substantially impact final rankings, especially among clustered second and third-tier candidates
- ›The exact specification of six candidates in order—rather than just predicting the top two or three finishers—creates a conjunctive probability that compounds uncertainty across multiple positions
- ›Any significant polling surprise, candidate dropout, or late-breaking scandal in the final weeks before the June primary could eliminate one of the six names from contention entirely
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Democrats are now 78¢ to win the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a coin flip with Republicans at 56¢. The California Governor primary heavily favors Xavier Becerra at 89¢. Peru's election shows Keiko Fujimori solidifying at 93¢.
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The California gubernatorial primary and Los Angeles mayoral race are seeing major positioning shifts. Xavier Becerra is the heavy favorite (99¢) in CA, but Steve Hilton surged 7 cents to 96 cents to advance to the runoff. In LA, Spencer Pratt's mayoral bid continues to lose momentum, falling 3 cents to 1 cent, while the Nithya Raman vs Karen Bass matchup solidifies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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