Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
97%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
351 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Bass, Pratt, and Raman will finish first, second, and third respectively in Los Angeles's June 2026 mayoral primary. The 47% lean toward this specific ordering over alternatives (such as Bass-Raman-Pratt at 32%) suggests modest confidence in this outcome among traders. The primary driver appears to be incumbent Mayor Karen Bass's polling strength and name recognition, though the relatively fragmented probabilities across six distinct orderings indicate substantial uncertainty about the secondary finishers. The June primary election will directly resolve this market by producing the actual finishing order. Until then, shifts in polling data, candidate endorsements, or late campaign momentum could reallocate probability mass between the competing orderings, particularly between the top two scenarios which together account for most market activity.
- ›Bass's current polling position and whether she maintains or loses ground in the two weeks before the June primary
- ›Pratt's campaign performance and ability to consolidate support as the second-place finisher versus Raman's ground organization and demographic appeal
- ›Recent polling releases or endorsements that shift expected vote shares among the three candidates
- ›Voter turnout patterns in Los Angeles that could disproportionately affect which second-tier candidate captures more votes
- ›The actual June 2026 primary election results, which will determine the exact three-candidate finishing order
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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Democrats are now 78¢ to win the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a coin flip with Republicans at 56¢. The California Governor primary heavily favors Xavier Becerra at 89¢. Peru's election shows Keiko Fujimori solidifying at 93¢.
California & LA Primaries Heat Up: Hilton Surges, Pratt Fades
The California gubernatorial primary and Los Angeles mayoral race are seeing major positioning shifts. Xavier Becerra is the heavy favorite (99¢) in CA, but Steve Hilton surged 7 cents to 96 cents to advance to the runoff. In LA, Spencer Pratt's mayoral bid continues to lose momentum, falling 3 cents to 1 cent, while the Nithya Raman vs Karen Bass matchup solidifies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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