Los Angeles wins by over 10.5 points
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
11 contracts
Closes
May 24, 2026
15 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Indiana wins by over
Cluster 2
Chicago wins by over
Cluster 3
Atlanta wins by over
Cluster 4
Las Vegas wins by over
Cluster 5
Dallas wins by over 3.5 points
Dallas wins by over 3.5 points?: Dallas wins by over 3.5 points
KXWNBASPREAD-26MAY09DALIND-DAL4
Cluster 6
Phoenix wins by over 3.5 points
Phoenix wins by over 3.5 points?: Phoenix wins by over 3.5 points
KXWNBASPREAD-26MAY09PHXLV-PHX4
Cluster 7
Minnesota wins by over 3.5 points
Minnesota wins by over 3.5 points?: Minnesota wins by over 3.5 points
KXWNBASPREAD-26MAY09ATLMIN-MIN4
Analysis
This contract asks whether Los Angeles will win a game by more than 10.5 points. At 18% probability, the market currently assesses this outcome as unlikely but possible. The low probability reflects that double-digit victories are relatively rare in competitive matchups. The main drivers of this probability are Los Angeles's current roster strength and recent performance metrics compared to their opponent, along with home/away status and any recent injuries. The resolution will depend entirely on the final score differential when the game concludes. Related contracts suggest uncertainty around whether Los Angeles will win at all, with some indicating closer point totals are more probable than blowouts.
- ›Los Angeles's average point differential in recent games compared to historical data for similar matchups
- ›Opponent's defensive ranking and offensive efficiency in recent contests
- ›Home court advantage status and any applicable travel schedule factors
- ›Current injury reports for key players on both rosters
- ›Whether the line movement on this contract has been trending up or down over the past 24-48 hours, indicating shifting expectations
What moved the line
- May 8Indiana wins by over 5.5 points↑39pp12→51¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Las Vegas wins by over 6.5 points↑33pp20→53¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Atlanta wins by over 2.5 points↑18pp34→52¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Las Vegas wins by over 6.5 points↑18pp2→20¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Indiana wins by over 10.5 points↑14pp5→19¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.