World Cup Group F Winner
Leader sits at 54% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Netherlands
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Japan
Spread
26pp
contested
24h volume
$5K
modest
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
19 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
World Cup Group F Winner
Analysis
The Netherlands is priced at 55% to win World Cup Group F, meaning markets estimate better than even odds they finish ahead of Japan (26%), Sweden (14%), and Tunisia (6%). This reflects both UEFA ranking strength and recent tournament performance. Key drivers include head-to-head records, current team form, and injury status entering the group stage. The probability will shift materially once Group F matches begin and results clarify relative performance—expected matches start around mid-June 2026. Early wins would confirm favorites; unexpected defeats would redistribute probability toward contenders. Trading volume is substantial ($3.5k daily in the Netherlands contract), indicating active price discovery.
- ›Netherlands holds a UEFA ranking advantage over all group opponents and has qualified for recent World Cup tournaments, historically suggesting stronger group-stage performance
- ›Japan finished second in qualifying but has limited recent tournament experience; its 26% price depends on competitive depth relative to European opposition
- ›Group stage outcomes depend entirely on match results beginning in June 2026; current pricing is pre-competitive and will shift sharply after opening games
- ›Head-to-head historical records and recent friendlies provide limited signal; World Cup group performance often diverges from rankings based on tactical adjustments and in-tournament form
- ›Injuries to key players in any squad before June 2026 would materially alter competitive balance; squad health status is not fully reflected in current pricing
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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