Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $50 by Dec 31, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract measures whether crude oil's front-month price will trade at or above $50 at any point before the end of 2026. At 55% probability, the market reflects slightly better odds for reaching this threshold than not. Current WTI prices near $80–90 provide substantial room for prices to decline 40–44% and still settle above $50 by year-end. The main drivers are global supply disruptions, OPEC production decisions, and macroeconomic demand—particularly manufacturing activity in developed economies and Chinese industrial output. Near-term catalysts include weekly petroleum inventory data from the EIA and OPEC meetings scheduled later in 2026, both of which can shift sentiment around medium-term price floors. The low cost of capital and structural demand for crude oil make prices dropping below $50 less likely than a year ago, though recession risk or a sustained demand collapse remains possible.

• ›Current WTI front-month price (~$80–90) sits 38–44% above the $50 threshold, creating a substantial buffer against year-end settlement below target
• ›Weekly EIA crude inventory reports and any supply disruptions (geopolitical events, refinery outages) are near-term price movers that affect the probability of temporary dips
• ›OPEC production policy decisions and changes in Chinese economic growth rates directly influence medium-term price floors and the likelihood of sustained sub-$50 pricing
• ›The 7-contract structure shows meaningful disagreement on specific price levels in May and December, with some traders pricing near-term volatility while others focus on year-end positioning
• ›A global recession scenario or demand destruction would be the primary risk to the $50 floor; current probabilities suggest markets assess this risk as material but not dominant

What moved the line

• May 679.99 or below↑24pp56→80¢ · Kalshi
• May 674.99 or below↑19pp46→65¢ · Kalshi
• May 379.99 or below↓15pp71→56¢ · Kalshi
• May 779.99 or below↓10pp80→70¢ · Kalshi
• May 364.99 or below↓10pp36→26¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds