Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $50 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 15% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 9%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
64.99 or below
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
9¢
61.99 or below
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
98 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $62 by Dec 31, 2026?: 61.99 or below
KXWTIMIN-26DEC31-T62
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $65 by Dec 31, 2026?: 64.99 or below
KXWTIMIN-26DEC31-T65
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $60 by Dec 31, 2026?: 59.99 or below
KXWTIMIN-26DEC31-T60
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $61 by Dec 31, 2026?: 60.99 or below
KXWTIMIN-26DEC31-T61
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $63 by Dec 31, 2026?: 62.99 or below
KXWTIMIN-26DEC31-T63
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $64 by Dec 31, 2026?: 63.99 or below
KXWTIMIN-26DEC31-T64
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $58 by Dec 31, 2026?: 57.99 or below
KXWTIMIN-26DEC31-T58
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $55 by Dec 31, 2026?: 54.99 or below
KXWTIMIN-26DEC31-T55
Analysis
This 54% probability reflects traders' assessment that crude oil will touch $50 per barrel at some point between now and year-end 2026. The probability leans toward a price dip occurring, but only slightly—suggesting meaningful uncertainty about near-term direction. Oil prices are driven primarily by supply disruptions, OPEC+ production decisions, and global demand growth or recession signals. Near-term volatility is anchored to geopolitical risk and inventory data, while longer-term movement depends on whether economic growth accelerates or decelerates. The August inventory reports and any major supply shocks over the next four months will likely resolve much of this uncertainty, as they determine whether crude stays range-bound above $50 or breaks lower.
- ›WTI front-month crude closed above $80 in early August 2026; a $30+ decline would be required to breach $50 by year-end
- ›Kalshi's shorter-dated contracts ($59 by Dec 31 at 21¢) show minimal pricing for a $20+ drop, suggesting marginal probability of steep declines
- ›OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical stability have historically supported floors; any major supply disruption would support higher prices and lower this probability
- ›Global recession indicators and China demand data over Q4 2026 will be the primary downside catalyst; strong economic reports would keep prices elevated
- ›The market is pricing roughly symmetric risk between a stable, higher-price scenario and a slip toward $50, with the leader at 54% indicating slight lean toward the dip occurring
What moved the line
- Sep 2361.99 or below↑9pp4→13¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 2362.99 or below↑6pp6→12¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 2363.99 or below↑6pp6→12¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 1764.99 or below↑4pp11→15¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 1864.99 or below↓4pp15→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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