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74.99 or below · Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $

74.99 or below is priced at 98¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 97¢ bid, 98¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $.

Price history

98¢ current

+57¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
May 23, 2026Jun 22, 2026

Contract brief

If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is below $75 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

74.99 or below

Rank

#1 of 6

Leader

74.99 or below 97¢

Range

4¢-97¢

Family volume

$8K

Identifier

KXWTIMIN-26DEC31-T75

Jun 22, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 25m ago

Implied probability

98¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 22, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 25m ago

Bid

97¢

Ask

98¢

Spread

24h volume

$4K

Family rank

#1 of 6

6 outcomes · Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Family volume

$8K

Orderbook snapshot

97 / 98¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
97¢356
96¢1.0K
95¢22
94¢875
91¢321
AskSize
98¢2.0K
99¢155

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is below $75 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

KXWTIMIN-26DEC31-T75

SF Signal
SF Index
4511.27
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$8K

Outcomes

6

Highest price

74.99 or below 97¢

Current share

55%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

7.9%

IY (No)

4558.7%

Adj IY

4511%

CRI

24

RV

102%

VR

3.40

Regime

neutral

Score

0.341

Observability

low

Event type

financial

Full indicator table

7.9%
4558.7%
Adj IY
4511%
24
RV
102%
VR
3.40
IAR
0.5/h
Overround
1.4%
LAS
0.01

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SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.