YOM FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 45% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 45%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$50M
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
45¢
$100M
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
602 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
YOM FDV above ___ one day after launch
YOM FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $50M
0x1865f8…21f5
YOM FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M
0x7c05fe…eb0f
YOM FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $800M
0x4912f2…efbc
YOM FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M
0xd5ef21…7895
YOM FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
0xb3b9f0…29c3
YOM FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $20M
0x5e89c5…4aea
YOM FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M
0x4e6662…3af8
Analysis
This market estimates a 60% probability that a token will reach a $100 million fully diluted valuation within one day of launch. The current price reflects moderately bullish sentiment, sitting between the runner-up contract at 51% and outcomes with higher thresholds trading lower. The valuation hinges on launch-day trading volume, initial demand, and how the token supply is structured—larger supplies at equivalent market caps would produce lower valuations. Key uncertainties include market conditions on launch day, competing token releases, and regulatory developments that could affect sentiment. The resolution depends entirely on the token's first 24-hour trading activity and the official FDV calculation, which typically factors circulating or fully diluted token counts announced at or before launch. Market-wide crypto sentiment and comparable recent token launches will likely influence final positioning.
- ›Circulating supply announced at launch determines whether a given market cap translates to $100M FDV or not
- ›Launch-day crypto market conditions and aggregate trading volume across exchanges determine whether initial demand meets threshold
- ›Token lockup structure and vesting schedules affect reported FDV calculation methodology
- ›Competitive landscape—simultaneous launches or major competing tokens could reduce demand allocation
- ›Pre-launch marketing, partnerships announced, and ecosystem positioning set baseline expectations for Day 1 trading activity
What moved the line
- May 6$20M↓7pp56→49¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$300M↓7pp50→43¢ · Polymarket
- May 2$200M↓6pp50→44¢ · Polymarket
- May 2$100M↓6pp49→43¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$50M↓4pp47→43¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.