Will ZEC trimmed mean be above $400.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 78% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
78%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$9
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
23 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will ZEC trimmed mean be above $430.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026
Will ZEC trimmed mean be above $430.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Above $430.00
KXZECMAXMON-ZEC-26MAY31-43000
Analysis
This contract estimates an 84% probability that ZEC (Zcash) will trade above $400 by month-end, reflecting trader expectations for modest upside over the next four weeks. The current price level and historical volatility are the primary anchors: if ZEC appreciates steadily, the contract likely settles high; if it declines or consolidates below $400, it settles low. The main driver of directional movement will be broader cryptocurrency market sentiment and Bitcoin's performance, since altcoins typically move in correlation with BTC. The contract resolves on May 31, 2026, and market prices between now and then will reveal whether the 84% probability accurately captured the probability of ZEC remaining above this threshold.
- ›ZEC's current price relative to the $400 target and distance to that level
- ›Correlation patterns between ZEC and Bitcoin price movements during the resolution period
- ›Aggregate trading volume and liquidity for ZEC across major exchanges used in the trimmed mean calculation
- ›Historical volatility of ZEC over similar 4-week windows and whether May typically exhibits higher or lower price swings
- ›Regulatory or exchange-listing announcements affecting ZEC's trading conditions before May 31
What moved the line
- May 3Above $430.00↑36pp25→61¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (78% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 d ago.