ZED FC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC
Leader sits at 36% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
ZED FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Draw (ZED FC vs. Ghazl El Ma
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 12, 2026
3 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
ZED FC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Ghazl El Mahalla SC will win an upcoming match against ZED FC, with roughly a 31% chance assigned to Ghazl El Mahalla SC victory and 28% to a draw. The low trading volume ($0 over 24 hours) suggests limited market participation and potentially wide bid-ask spreads, making these prices less reliable than heavily-traded contracts. Resolution depends on the match outcome, which will occur on a scheduled date. Key drivers of the current pricing likely include recent form, head-to-head history, team injury status, and home-field advantage. The primary catalyst resolving all uncertainty is the completion of the match itself, after which one outcome will determine the winner-take-all payout structure across both contracts.
- ›Both contracts show minimal 24-hour volume ($0 reported), indicating thin liquidity and potentially unreliable price discovery
- ›Ghazl El Mahalla SC is priced at 30¢ while draws are at 28¢, leaving approximately 42% implied probability for ZED FC to win (100% minus both shown prices)
- ›No recent trades recorded on either contract, suggesting the market may be stale or participants are inactive
- ›The match outcome is binary and objectively verifiable once played, leaving no interpretation risk for contract settlement
- ›Current probability represents fewer than 10 basis points of market conviction, typical for low-volume emerging-market football betting
What moved the line
- May 8ZED FC↑5pp35→40¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.