KXCAPRIMARY

# Prediction Market Yield Curve Analysis: KXCAPRIMARY The yield curve displays a dramatic steepening pattern, with the near-term 266-day tenor showing substantially higher YES probabilities than the 572-day tenor across comparable markets. At the short end, the 266-day bucket clusters around 36-87%, with KXCAPRIMARY-2026-VFON trading at 87% and others ranging from 36-45%. In contrast, the 572-day tenor exhibits far greater dispersion and generally lower central tendency, with probabilities scattered across a wide range from 1% to 94%, though many high-probability markets cluster in the 86-93% range. The cheapest YES probabilities appear in the 572-day bucket, where numerous markets trade at just 1-7%, including KXCAPRIMARY-4226-LVER, KXCAPRIMARY-3626-CAND, and KXCAPRIMARY-2326-KMAT at 1%. This steep inversion suggests the market prices in significant uncertainty about event timing. The shape of this curve implies the market expects resolution to occur relatively soon, within the near-term 266-day window, rather than extending to 572 days. The concentration of high probabilities at shorter tenors indicates confidence that certain outcomes will materialize quickly, while the proliferation of extremely low probabilities at the longer tenor suggests markets are pricing in either resolution before that date or genuine uncertainty about whether certain candidates remain viable over the full 572-day horizon. The extreme dispersion at 572 days—ranging from 1% to 94%—reflects deep disagreement about individual candidate viability at longer horizons, contrasting sharply with the more cohesive probability clustering at 266 days.