KXMLBHRR

# Prediction Market Yield Curve Analysis: KXMLBHRR The yield curve exhibits a pronounced downward slope across all 239 constituent markets, with all contracts sharing a uniform 3-day tenor to resolution on April 26. Within this single-tenor structure, the curve reveals significant variation in YES probabilities across individual player and outcome markets. The highest probabilities cluster around 75-78% for favorable outcomes (such as MINBBUXTON25-1 at 75%, NYYAJUDGE99-1 at 78%, and LADSOHTANI17-1 at 78%), while the lowest probabilities concentrate in the 1-2% range for extreme tail outcomes (MILSFRELICK10-5 at 1%, ATHJWILSON5-5 at 1%, KCVPASQUANTINO9-5 at 2%). The cheapest YES probabilities appear in the fifth-tier outcome buckets across most player markets, consistently trading at 1-7%, suggesting these represent the most unlikely scenarios within each matchup's outcome distribution. The flat tenor structure—with all markets resolving in three days—prevents traditional yield curve analysis of time-decay dynamics. Instead, the market's probability distribution across outcome tiers reveals expectations about event magnitude and likelihood. The steep gradient from tier-1 to tier-5 outcomes indicates high confidence in baseline scenarios (65-78% for primary outcomes) with rapidly declining conviction for secondary and tertiary results. The consistent probability architecture across different games and players suggests the market views April 26 as a definitive resolution point with little uncertainty about timing, focusing instead on discriminating between likely and unlikely individual outcomes within that fixed window.