Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ivan Cepeda Castro's odds have declined sharply from 43¢ to 36¢ over the past week, suggesting deteriorating market confidence in his candidacy with roughly two months until the June 21 runoff deadline. The extraordinarily high implied yield of 1,025% on the Yes side indicates extreme underpricing relative to the contract's time value, though this is partially offset by moderate liquidity ($1.6M daily volume against $46.8M open interest) and a tight 1¢ spread. The neutral regime score and low cliff risk suggest the market is pricing in genuine uncertainty about Cepeda's viability rather than reacting to imminent binary events, making this a speculative position on Colombian political dynamics rather than a near-term catalyst play.

Resolution rules

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Indicators

Regime

Trade